Presidential elections - housing market

No matter how many elections you’ve lived through, each one can feel a bit like a wildcard when November draws near and you’re wondering whether you should make a move—or wait until the dust settles.

Generally speaking, presidential elections have only a small and temporary impact on the housing market. That said, it’s natural to be curious as to how an election could impact your decision to buy or sell a home this year.

So, here’s a quick rundown of what you can expect from this year’s election, based on what has happened in election years past.

How do Elections Impact the Housing Market?

Home Sales

For the past several election years, November has typically brought a slight slowdown in U.S. home sales. Ali Wolf, Chief Economist at Zonda, confirms that while home sales are generally unchanged during an election year, November is slower than normal.

That temporary downtick is mainly due to people feeling uncertain and hesitant about making a big decision (like buying or selling a home) when they perceive an election’s outcome could have a real impact on their financial situations or where they want to live next.

It’s a pivotal time. It’s also short-lived. Home sales generally bounce back in December and continue to climb the following year.

In fact, according to data from the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) and the National Association of Realtors® (NAR), after nine of the last 11 Presidential elections, home sales increased the following year.

Home Prices

According to Bankrate, home price appreciation during past election years has outpaced that of the surrounding non-election years.

A Bankrate analysis of Case-Shiller data shows home prices rose an average of 4.84% in the nine election years we’ve had since 1987, compared to an average 4.44% in the 28 non-election years.

Based on that, you might think presidential elections are good for the housing market. The reality is a bit more complicated.

Home price appreciation by year from 1987 to 2023 (election years in bold font):

1987: 7.22%
1988: 7.23%
1989: 4.39%
1990: -0.69%
1991: -0.17%
1992: 0.82%
1993: 2.16%
1994: 2.52%
1995: 1.79%
1996: 2.43%
1997: 4.02%
1998: 6.44%
1999: 7.68%
2000: 9.29%
2001: 6.68%
2002: 9.56%
2003: 9.82%
2004: 13.64%
2005: 13.51%
2006: 1.73%
2007: -5.40%
2008: -12.00%
2009: -3.85%
2010: -4.11%
2011: -3.88%
2012: 6.44%
2013: 10.71%
2014: 4.51%
2015: 5.20%
2016: 5.31%
2017: 6.21%
2018: 4.52%
2019: 3.68%
2020: 10.43%
2021: 18.87%
2022: 5.65%
2023: 5.56%

In recent decades, the worst election year by far for the U.S. housing market was 2008. Home values that year plunged 12% as the historic housing bubble of 2004–2007 finally burst. The housing market crash had nothing to do with the tension surrounding the election. It was all thanks to horrendous economic timing. The global economy was collapsing. The silver lining was the suddenly gigantic room for improvement.

Granted, this is the one election year in the past few decades when home price appreciation was actually down from the previous year (from -5.40% to -12.00%).

The best year for home price growth since 1987 was 2021, when home values skyrocketed 18.9% amid record-low mortgage rates during the pandemic housing boom. Again, the extreme housing market conditions that year had nothing to do with a new president taking office.

Mortgage Rates

Mortgage rates are a big deal because they determine how big your monthly payment will be when you buy a home. So, it’s natural to want to know whether these rates tend to go up or down during an election year—or what you can expect with rates before and after an election.

Based on data from Freddie Mac, mortgage rates have declined from July to November in eight of the past 11 presidential elections.

Moving on to the aftermath of this year’s election, most housing market forecasts show mortgage rates easing slightly throughout the remainder of 2024 and into 2025. Assuming they’re correct, this year will continue the trend of declining interest rates leading up to the election—and keep rates on a downward trend in the months to follow.

Lower rates can translate into lower monthly payments. But lower rates also mean more buyers are likely to enter the market.

That means buyers who wait for rates to fall below 6% will likely encounter fierce competition for available homes, driving up home prices and all but eliminating concessions that could make the home more affordable.

Final Thoughts

While presidential candidates often hype up the economic plans they have for their first year in office, economists tend to agree they have little to no influence over the housing sector. Doesn’t mean they won’t try to convince you otherwise.

The housing market may seem confusing right now (even if you’re not sweating the election), but with the right information and a focus on local data, you can navigate it confidently.

For an even more personalized data report for your home or neighborhood, reach out to me here.